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Laurix1983 avatar Laurix1983 commented on August 29, 2024

I have the same problem but I get coifs as [NAN,NAN,NAN...]

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Laurix1983 avatar Laurix1983 commented on August 29, 2024

Seems that in my case #2 has the solution - my dataset is not large enough

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lauri108 avatar lauri108 commented on August 29, 2024

@ujjwalgarg1995 @Laurix1983 you can experiment with a smaller degree, as well as use ARLeastSquare instead of ARMaxEntropy, which uses the method of Least Squares to extract the coefficients. Code sample as follows:

const timeseries = require("timeseries-analysis");
const data = [
      ['2019-04-15T03:00:00.000Z', 0],
      ['2019-04-16T03:00:00.000Z', 1],
      ['2019-04-17T03:00:00.000Z', 3],
      ['2019-04-18T03:00:00.000Z', 6],
      ['2019-04-19T03:00:00.000Z', 8],
      ['2019-04-20T03:00:00.000Z', 9]
   ];
const currentTimeSeries = new timeseries.main(data);
const coeffs = currentTimeSeries.ARLeastSquare({degree: 3});
console.log('coeffs', coeffs);

I've also found that in order to make the forecast meaningful using real-world data, It's better to use a subset of the data that's closer to the estimated value, as mentioned in #10:

const coeffsslice = currentTimeSeries.ARMaxEntropy({
      data: currentTimeSeries.data.slice(0, 4),
      degree: 3
});
console.log('slicedcoeff', coeffsslice);

Keeping in mind that the way the coefficients are used to construct the forecast differs between ARMaxEntropy and ARLeastSquares. You can check the source code for this on line 801 of timeseries-analysis.js.

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