Forecast schedule recovery about ferry.fyi HOT 2 OPEN

Yeah the delay number could be more sophisticated. Here's my proposal for a first step for building a predictive model here:

• Create the model on a nightly basis by pulling all sailing for a given weekly slot for the last 1-2 months (e.g. Saturday at 10:30am or Sunday at 9:30pm)
• Calculate the average delta in departure delays between the previous slot and the current one (e.g. +11mins or -4mins)
• Forecast delays by adding the current actual delay for the vessel to average delay delta for that weekly sailing slot

from ferry.fyi.

I'd add: a first principles approach might be based on something like:
(1) It takes crossing_time to load pedestrians, untie, cross, and dock, and unload pedestrians.
(2) Before we can leave on our next trip, we need to unload n_unload cars at a rate of unload_rate per minute.
(3) We also need to load min(capacity, n_waiting) cars at a rate of load_rate per minute.

So the forecast additional delay and/or schedule recovery rate can be directly tied to the forecast vehicle loads.

from ferry.fyi.