projection or forecast? about bpmodels HOT 4 CLOSED

I think sadly there isn't any commonly accepted definition. To me these are quite similar and I would perhaps define them as:

• Prediction == forecast (except in a statistical sense when predictions can be any unobserved, including past, data)
• Forecast: a statement about the future i.e. giving predicted probabilities for future outcomes (if a deterministic forecast then that probability == 1)
• Projection: the same as "simulation", i.e. a model run forward; often, but not necessarily always, assuming things may stay the same. A projection may be used as a forecast, or as a scenario.

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Great observation, Andree!

As you have noticed, the terminologies can sometimes be confusing. Some authors tend to be less strict and use them interchangeably. However, based on the RECON definition, I believe the vignette is about "forecasting" rather than "projection" since the underlying model is somewhat mechanistic and also assumes that conditions will remain the same throughout the forecasting window. Joel Hellewell actually has a nice reflection on this distinction that you might find interesting.

I would like @sbfnk to weigh in on what is the appropriate terminology to use here.

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Thanks for your input, Seb.

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@andree, I think this might be better placed under the Discussions, so I will move it there.

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