Terminology about metaforecast HOT 6 OPEN

Interesting, I feel like they have basically the same connotation to me (a prediction feels just as likely in my head to be some qualitative statement).

I just looked into this a bit more; at very least, wikipedia kind of disagrees with me. But wikipedia also seems kind of confused.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data.... Prediction is a similar, but more general term... for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.

But on the prediction page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

A prediction (Latin præ-, "before," and dicere, "to say"), or forecast, is a statement about a future event or data.

I think there's generally not much consensus on this.

from metaforecast.

How about "Question", "outcomes" and "estimate" as more specific versions of "Forecast", "options", "individual forecast"? Not sure how stable these would be, though.

Tagging @OAGr in case he has better options

from metaforecast.

I'm also curious what @uvafan thinks here.

from metaforecast.

I'd go with with "Question", "outcomes", "forecast". Btw, I think num forecasters is likely a better proxy for quality and more easily understood than num forecasts, when available.

from metaforecast.

"Question" / "Outcome" / "Estimate" seem good to me. "Forecast" instead of "estimate" is also okay.

I think I prefer "prediction" more than "forecast", because "forecast" is often used more more broad ways. (Like, you could have a "forecast" that's just a paragraph of text explaining how you think the world will be.)

In the case of Metaforecast, we're really handling "estimates" instead of just forecasts, so having a more generic term could be good.

Another thing we could do, in the backend at least, is to have more specific terms, like, "Estimand" or "Estimatable" (Or, "Forecastable". My guess is that this isn't needed at this point.

from metaforecast.

Oh yeah I agree with "Estimate" if some of the stuff in Metaforecast isn't forecasts about the future.

I think I prefer "prediction" more than "forecast", because "forecast" is often used more more broad ways. (Like, you could have a "forecast" that's just a paragraph of text explaining how you think the world will be.)

Interesting, I feel like they have basically the same connotation to me (a prediction feels just as likely in my head to be some qualitative statement).

from metaforecast.