rongmere Goto Github PK

followers: 1.0 following: 3.0 repos: 22.0 gists: 0.0

Name: Emma Thompson

Type: User

Bio: Aspiring writer with a passion for storytelling. Currently pursuing a degree in English literature and exploring various literary genres.

Emma Thompson's Projects

algoplus

最忠实于CTP官方API特性、最低延时、最易使用的Python版量化投资开源框架。

barra-multiple-factor-risk-model

Barra-Multiple-factor-risk-model

ensemble-predictive-model-forecasting-amgen-stock-price-at-year-end-31s

The basis of this project involves analyzing Amgen future profitability based on its current business environment and financial performance. Technical Analysis, on the other hand, includes reading the charts and using statistical figures to identify the trends in the stock market. The dataset used for this analysis was downloaded from Yahoo finance for year 2009 to 2019. There are multiple variables in the dataset – date, open, high, low, volume. Adjusted close. The columns Open and Close represent the starting and final price at which the stock is traded on a day. High and Low represent the maximum, minimum price of the share for the day. The profit or loss calculation is usually determined by the closing price of a stock for the day, I used the adjusted closing price as the target variable. I downloaded data on the inflation rate, unemployment rate, Industrial Production Index, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items and Real Gross Domestic Product as independent variables, Quarterly Financial Report: U.S. Corporations: Cash Dividends Charged to Retained Earnings All Manufacturing: All Nondurable Manufacturing: Chemicals: Pharmaceuticals and Medicines Industry, Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical Preparation Manufacturing, 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, and Producer Price Index by Industry: Pharmaceutical and Medicine Manufacturing Index. The independent variables are economic parameters which was obtained from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website. Methodology 1. Linear Regression: The linear regression model returns an equation that determines the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. I used linear regression tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year. The algorithm was trained with the historical data to see how the variables impact on the dependent variable. The test data was used to predict the adjusted closing price for the year and predicted a stock price of $193.38. 2. Support Vector Machines (SVM): Support Vector Networks (SVN), are a popular set of supervised learning algorithms originally developed for classification (categorical target) problems and can be used for regression (numerical target) problems. SVMs are memory efficient and can address many predictor variables. This model finds the best equation of one predictor, a plane (two predictors) or a hyperplane (three or more predictors) that maximally separates the groups of records, based on a measure of distance into different groups based on the target variable. A kernel function provides the measure of distance that causes to records to be placed in the same or different groups and involves taking a function of the predictor variables to define the distance metric. I used the SVM tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year and predicted a stock price of $189.44. 3. Spline Model: The Spline Model tool was used because it provides the multivariate adaptive regression splines (or MARS) algorithm of Friedman. This statistical learning model self-determines which subset of fields best predict a target field of interest and can capture highly nonlinear relationships and interactions between fields. I used the Spline tool in Alteryx with ARIMA tool to forecast the stock prices for the year and predicted a stock price of $201.84. The results from the models was weighted by comparing the RMSE of each model. A lower RMSE indicates that the model’s predictions were closer to the actual values. However, a simpler model with the same RMSE as a more complex model is generally better, as simpler models are less likely to be overfit. Though the Spline model had a lower RMSE, the Linear Regression model had fewer variables. Thus, we combined the 3 models with the ARIMA forecast in a model ensemble, which allows us to use the results of multiple models. The forecasted stock price is $197.99 with 1.5% increase for 31st December 2019. Apart from economic parameters, stock price is affected by the news about the company and other factors like demonetization or merger/demerger of the companies. There are certain intangible factors which can often be impossible to predict beforehand hence the model predicts that the stock price of Amgen will continue to rise except there is a drastic downturn of the company.

hello-algo

《Hello 算法》：动画图解、一键运行的数据结构与算法教程，支持 Java, C++, Python, Go, JS, TS, C#, Swift, Rust, Dart, Zig 等语言。

high-frequency-trading-model-with-ib

A high-frequency trading model using Interactive Brokers API with pairs and mean-reversion in Python

mengrongwork.github.io

孟荣工作

myresume

Latex template of my resume

notion-to-obsidian-converter

Converts exported Notion notes to work with Obsidian.

pairstrade-fyp-2019

We tested 3 approaches for Pair Trading: distance, cointegration and reinforcement learning approach.

playground

Play with neural networks!

python-100-days

Python - 100天从新手到大师

qlib

Qlib is an AI-oriented quantitative investment platform, which aims to realize the potential, empower the research, and create the value of AI technologies in quantitative investment. With Qlib, you can easily try your ideas to create better Quant investment strategies.

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