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Probly is a Python-like mini-language for probabilistic estimation. Based on Starlark and implemented in Go.                                           

Parse a spreadsheet's computation graph and perform Monte Carlo simulations.                                                                                                           

Intuitive UI and API to create subjective probability distributions. Offers novel distributions that can that flexibly match your beliefs, unlike traditional ones.

Estimate the value of information (VOI) of receiving a signal in a simplified model.                                                                                           

Specify a joint probability distribution from arbitrary marginal distributions and pairwise rank correlations. Wrapper around statsmodels.

The PERT probability distribution is defined by the minimum, most likely, and maximum values that a variable can take. It is commonly used to elicit subjective beliefs. PERT is an alternative to the triangular distribution, but has a smoother shape.

Personal collection of Python utilities: data structures, mathematics, logging, code timing...                                                                       

My Dockerfiles, plus a script to build images for various platforms and push them to Docker Hub.                                                                   

Generate Karabiner-Elements configuration using Jsonnet                                                                                                                                                     

MacOS update script: updates Homebrew formulae & casks with parallel downloads, Mac App Store apps, asdf plugins, Oh My Zsh             

Scripts for Time Machine: get an email if backups have not recently run, list most recent backups and their size                                   

The models used in the Open Philanthropy report "Semi-informative priors over AI timelines", and a companion web interface.             

An opinionated task list designed to steer you towards intentions that feel alive and relevant, instead of long lists of old tasks.

Generate responsive images in Jekyll from pure markdown, without any Liquid tags. Uses jekyll_picture_tag