Code for my paper on authoritarian legislature and its effect on political violence
Theoretical argument: Participating in the legislature provides information to both the dictator and the opposition about each other's strength. Knowing precisely who would win in a fight, both sides would actually negotiate instead of fighting. By doing so, both sides save from the cost of fighting (e.g. weapons, personnel, destroyed infrastructure, etc.) and can split that saving in negotitation based on strength.
Empirical model:
- Bayesian hierarchical model (written in JAGS in R) using global event database (ICEWS)
- Survey experiment of Vietnamese businessmen