Use Kelly criterion to calculate how many bets you need to place in a gambling game. Specifically, losing this bet means losing all bets.
Fill in the blanks and run the code!
# What is the name of this random event?
# 这个随机事件的名字是？
note = "T1 在 S13 全球总决赛决赛上获胜"
# What is your estimate of the probability of this random event occurring?
# 你估计这个随机事件发生的概率是？
winrate_estimated_by_yourself = 0.8
# What are the odds of this random event (including principal)?
# 这个随机事件的赔率是（包含本金）？
pl = 1.375
# What are the odds that this random event will not occur?
# 这个随机事件不发生的赔率是？
pl_negative = 3.180
# What is all your principal used for gambling?
# 你的所有用于赌博的本金是？
bj = 10000
# Press Run!
# 按下运行吧！在 T1 在 S13 全球总决赛决赛上获胜 事件中，赔率为 1.375，它的对立事件的赔率为 3.18：
也就是庄家预估该事件的概率为 69.81%。
如果按照庄家预估胜率：
本场你获得期望 -4.01% 赌注。
在你预估概率为 80.00% 的情况下：
凯利公式推荐赌注为 26.67% 本金，本场你获得期望 10.00% 赌注，也就是期望 2.67% 本金。
本金 10000 元的情况下，凯利公式推荐赌注为 2666.67 元，本场如果胜利获得 1000.00 元。总期望为 266.67 元。
In the T1 在 S13 全球总决赛决赛上获胜 event, the odds were 1.375, while the odds for its opposing event were 3.18:
that is, the banker estimated the probability of this event to be 69.81%.
If you use the banker's estimated winning rate,
you will receive an expected -4.01% stake in this game.
Under your estimated probability of 80.00%:
Kelly criterion recommends a bet of 26.67% principal, and in this game you receive the expected 10.00% bet, which is the expected 2.67% principal.
In the case of a principal of 10000 yuan, Kelly criterion recommends a bet of 2666.67 yuan.
If you win, you will receive 1000.00 yuan. The total expected bet is 266.67 yuan.
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