centerforpeaceandsecuritystudies / grayzone Goto Github PK

google sheet formerly r_pull (now new_cases) should include all the new cases we've added
google sheet formerly aggregate (now old_cases) should include all the old cases we've coded new variables for

create aggregate.rds that merges both datasets

@Tom-Brailey, I've gone through all the citations on the gray zone paper, but would like a second pair of eyes if you have 30-45min before the end of the week.

One drawback of google docs is it only recent got zotero support for bibliography management, but we had to start the gray zone paper before that so we did the bibliography manually. We need to make sure that 1) everything we've cited in-text is listed in the references section at the end and 2) we haven't included anything in the references section that does not appear in text

I'd like you to compile 2 lists for me:

1. Cites to be added to References - these are cites that appear in text but that are missing from the references section (eg. Gotz 2017)
2. Cites to be removed from References - these are cites that appear in the references section but are missing in the article itself

The easiest way to do this will be having 2 windows open side by side, both with the google doc. You'll have to give it two passes.

First, scan through the article and every time something is cited, make sure it's in the references section. If you ctrl + F the parentheses bracket "(" that will highlight all the citations which should make it easier

Second, start from the top of the references section and ctrl + F each author name. If that reference (author-year) only shows up in the references section, flag it.

You can just respond to this issue ticket with the 2 lists above. I will then fix it on the back end.

Can you re-run the code for the average intensity plot and push that new plot?

I moved the code to 05a_Figures_Intensity.rmd

When I re-run the code, the y-axis labels on the right hand side get messed up. I think the error is something around line 106.

We changed the coding for 2 cases, so it only makes a minor aesthetic difference, but want it to be correct

Some scholars have argued that the frequency of gray zone conflict (conflict short of war) has increased in recent years, which we don't think is true. We'd like to show that by plotting the severity of Russian attacks from 1994-2018.

Using grayzone_aggregate_cpass.rds in the /data folder, make a time series plot with the following parameters:

• x-axis = year
• y-axis = average intensity of Russian response in that year
• format it as a bar plot so each year is a single bar
• title = "Average intensity of Russian aggression (1994-2018)"

The current data has each as a country-year. We want each row to be a year. That requires doing the following:

Recode intensity variable for each country-year. There are 5 rows that are dummy variables for whether Russia used that strategy in that conflict. We need a new column that is the highest value for each country-year:

• resp_convmil_gro = 5
• resp_convmil_airsea = 4
• resp_paramil = 3
• resp_cyberdisrup = 2
• resp_infoops = 1

So since the highest value for Estonia-2016 is resp_paramil, it gets a 2. Since the highest value for Georgia-2007 is convmil_gro, it gets a 5. That should have already been coded in one of the rmarkdown files, I think @ctreynolds13 did it for the new maps.

Once you have the highest intensity for each country-year, convert that into the average highest-value for each year. Call that variable "severity_avg_annual". So if there are 3 rows for 2005 that have highest values of 1, 3, and 5, the single 2005 row has an average highest intensity of 3.

So the plot will show a bar for each year whose height corresponds with that year's average highest intensity

See if we can look at all cases of Russian electoral interference

There are two previous datasets of Russian cyber ops we want to display geographically. I've already combined the datasets, chosen the relevant variables, and written up the instructions in the rmd file 08_map. Skim the html files for rmb 05-07 to get an idea of what things look like and what we're coding.

Make a map of the DCID data showing the severity of cyber attacks in each country they code

Make another map of the REI data showing the severity of electoral inference in each country they code

We'll figure out how to combine the maps later, but one of each for now should suffice.

If we could have first cut maps by the end of next week (12/28) that would be ideal, but no rush since you should be enjoying the holidays.

See what ICB data says about pre-2015 Russia cases already in our paper

Think of how to operationalize interdependence for the opportunity cost argument.

Natural gas export data?
Overall trade data?

Currently using COW dyadic trade data and natural gas export data from OEC

Use Tom's code from here to show overlap in previous Russia cyber datasets

Streamline theory section. Focus on redundancies in intro and lit review

I've added 2 news rows (Georgia 2002 and Georgia 2004) to the tab for old cases. Do the same as you did before, filling out the other relevant columns.

These cases may or may not have cyber operations at all, they might be purely kinetic. Start by reading their summaries here since they are included in our list because they are cases of Russian aggression documented by ICB