This GitHub repository includes the code and data for the following scientific article:

TAGLIARI Mario M., Pascal DANTHU, Jean-Michel LEONG POCK TSY, Cyrille CORNU, Jonathan LENOIR, Vítor CARVALHO-ROCHA, Ghislain VIEILLEDENT. 2021. Not all species will migrate poleward as the climate warms: the case of the seven baobab species in Madagascar. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15859.

The data/baobabs/ folder includes the occurrence dataset for the seven baobab species present in Madagascar (file data_Adansonia.csv). This file is the result of years of field inventories in Madagascar by botanists and ecologists working at CIRAD.

All the results of the study can be reproduced executing the R script R/baobabs.R. To do so, you can either execute the baobabs.sh shellscript or run the R script using a R GUI such as RStudio.

All the results of the study (tables and figures) are saved in the outputs folder.

Figure: Species range contraction under climate change for the four threatened baobab species. The four species are A. madagascariensis, A. perrieri, A. rubrostipa, and A. suarezensis (one species per row). (a, e, i, m) Occurrence points over Madagascar elevation map (elevation in m); (b, f, j, n) Current predicted species distribution. Legend indicates the number of models (0-4) predicting the species presence; (c,g,k,o) Projected species distribution in 2085 under scenario RCP 8.5 and the full-dispersal hypothesis. Legend indicates the number of models (0-12) predicting the species presence; (d,h,l,p) Projected species distribution in 2085 under scenario RCP 8.5 and the zero-dispersal hypothesis. Legend indicates the number of models (0-12) predicting the species presence. For the distribution maps, the species is assumed to be present (green areas) when a majority of models predicts a presence (votes >= 2 in the present, and >= 6 in the future). The species is considered absent (grey areas) when no model (votes = 0), or a minority of models (votes < 2 in the present, and < 6 in the future), predicts a presence. Maps for A. perrieri and A. suarezensis, two species distributed at the extreme North of Madagascar, have been zoomed in (black squares).

An archive of this repository is available in the Cirad Dataverse repository, doi: 10.1111/gcb.15859.

Baobab drawings by Grazyna Krecka-Duchaufour from "C. Cornu and P. Danthu. 2015. Guide d'identification illustré des baobabs de Madagascar. Cirad, Montpellier, 30 p., https://agritrop.cirad.fr/577579".