Arithmancer is a prediction market application. Users can make trades on predictions, betting on how likely an event is to occur. Each prediction is an individual market with a market maker system modeled on Robin Hanson's logarithmic market scoring rules.

This was designed and tested as an internal corporate decision market. Using outside of an organization as a general application will likely require additional features (ex. ACLs, better form validation and security, etc.).

Note: This is not an official Google product.

pip install -r requirements.txt

Download and install the Google Cloud SDK, and use dev_appserver.py to run a local server for development. Create your first prediction by going to "/predictions/create".

This runs on App Engine and uses Google Cloud Datastore. Google Cloud SDK is a prerequisite for development and deployment.

python runner.py app_test.py

Please read CONTRIBUTING.md for details on contributing.

Features that would be desired/on the roadmap:

• Comments
• ACLs for viewing and trading on a prediction
• Search

• Ben Goldhaber - Initial work
• Nathan Rogers - Daily Price Cron Job

This project is licensed under the Apache 2 License - see the LICENSE.md file for details.