Figure number: Cross-Chapter Box 10.4 Figure 1 From the IPCC Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report: Chapter 10

Historical annual-mean surface air temperature linear trend (°C per decade) and its attribution over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region. (a) Observed trends from Berkeley Earth (also showing the HKH outline), CRU TS (also showing the AR6 TIB outline, for ease of comparison to the Interactive Atlas), APHRO-MA and JRA-55 datasets over 1961–2014. (b) Models showing the coldest, median and warmest HKH temperature linear trends among the CMIP6 historical ensemble over 1961–2014. (c) Lowpass-filtered time series of annual-mean surface air temperature anomalies (°C, baseline 1961–1980) over the HKH region as outlined in panel (a), showing means of CMIP6 hist all-forcings (red), and the CMIP6 hist all-forcings sample corresponding to DAMIP experiments (pink), for hist-aer (grey) and hist-GHG (pale blue). Observed datasets are Berkeley Earth (dark blue), CRU (brown), APHRO-MA (light green) and JRA-55 (dark green). The filter is the same as that used in Figure 10.10. (d) Distribution of annual mean surface air temperature trends (°C per decade) over the HKH region from 1961 to 2014 for ensemble means, the aforementioned observed and reanalysis data (black crosses), individual members of CMIP6 hist all-forcings (red circles), CMIP6 hist-GHG (blue triangles), CMIP6 hist-aer (grey triangles), and box-and-whisker plots for the SMILEs used throughout Chapter 10 (grey shading). Ensemble means are also shown. All trends are estimated using ordinary least-squares regression and box-and-whisker plots follow the methodology used in Figure 10.6. Further details on data sources and processing are available in the chapter data table (Table 10.SM.11).

• Jury, M.W.: BSC, Spain; [email protected]; githubid: mwjury
• Turner, A.: University of Reading, UK
• Zuo, Z.: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China

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• ESMValTool-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: ar6_chapter_10

• ESMValCore-AR6-OriginalCode-FinalFigures: working_cordex_2.2

Recipe used: recipes/ar6_wgi_ch10/recipe_HKH.yml

Diagnostic used: diag_scripts/ar6_wgi_ch10/diagnostic_IPCC_AR6_CH10.py

This is the path of the image relative to the automatically generated ESMValTool output location:

• recipe_HKH_YYYYMMDD_HHMMSS/plots/ch_10/fig_CCB-4.1/Fig_CCB-4.1.png

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'external' data has been included in ESMValTool totalling ~400KB IPCC Atlas region TIB shape (10KB):

• esmvaltool/diag_scripts/ar6_wgi_ch10/CH10_additional_data/Atlas_regions/ASIA_Land_Tibetan-Plateau_TIB.* HKH shapefile (389kB):
• esmvaltool/diag_scripts/ar6_wgi_ch10/CH10_additional_data/HKH_shape/data/outline.*

• ESMValTool environment file: IPCC_environments/ar6_chapter_10_conda_environment.yml
• pip file: IPCC_environments/ar6_chapter_10_pip_environment.txt

Internal Wegener Center (University of Graz, Austria) machine wegc203128.

** The documentation was created by Chapter 10 Chapter Scientist Martin W. Jury (email: [email protected], githubid: mwjury). Please, contact Martin in case any questions in documentation arise.