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hector-calibration-summer-2024's Introduction

hector-calibration-summer-2024

Code and data related to historical calibration experiments by Hector's 2024 SULI

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hector-calibration-summer-2024's Issues

optim related functions

Looking at the project plan develop the functions related to optim such as

  • get_co2_data
  • det_temp_data
  • objective_fn
    • will probably want to add a test for this function
  • run_optim
  • mse
    • will probably want to add a test for this function
  • get_var_mse

Ocean Heat Content

Source: Kuhlbrodt, T., A. Voldoire, M. D. Palmer, O. Geoffroy, and R. E. Killick, 2023: Historical Ocean Heat Uptake in Two Pairs of CMIP6 Models: Global and Regional Perspectives. J. Climate, 36, 2183โ€“2203, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0468.1.

The SI zip file has ocean heat content that I would like to compare with Hector results

I think it is going to be - OHC_ensemble_Kuhlbrodt_etal_2022.csv the Central Estimate Full-depth column.

It would also be interesting to look at the yearly world heat content from NOAA I think a challenge here is the ocean depth

Add table metrics functions

Integrate table metrics script and functions into major_functions.R in order to evaluate parameters output by optim.

Experiment Design

TODO need to add table describing the different calibration protocols to try out, instead of opening an issue per experiment will probably add the PR number to the table

Experiment Description Original PR PR with expanded bounds
1 Recreate manuscript protocol #15 x
2 Pre process temp data with 3 year running mean #16 x
3 Pre process temp data with 5 year running mean #16 x
4 Pre process temp data with 10 year running mean #16 x
5 MSE weighting #17 #19
6-8 NMSE and smoothing #20 #20
9 NMSE modified to account for confidence interval #21 #21
10 Optimizing ECS, NMSE accounting for confidence interval #25 #25
11 Optimizing ECS & Alpha using NMSE accounting for CI #27 #27 (also tried even larger bounds)
1-11 Rerunning experiments 1-11 after fixing temperature bug #32 #32
12 Optimizing ECS & Alpha using NMSE for T, CO2, OHC (and accounting for CI) #33 x
13 Optimizing ECS & Alpha using MVSSE for T, CO2, OHC #34 x
14 Optimizing Alpha using NMSE for T, CO2, OHC (and accounting for CI) #35 #35
15 Optimizing ECS & Alpha using MAE for T, CO2, OHC #37 x
16 Optimizing ECS & Alpha using NMAE for T, CO2, OHC #37 x

Set up project structure

  • Add the .Rpoj file & then add it to .gitignore
  • Create a the subdirectory folders such as comparison_data, scripts, results (in order to add to git there is going to need to be some sort of file in each directory if you don't have anything to add yet add a readme.md file that has a brief description of what the directory will eventually contain)

Set up and run experiment one

In some ways this is going to be the experiment that let's us verify that that the calibration workflow is working as expected. This will be re-implementing the calibration of beta, q10, and diff that was used in the V3 manuscript.

Set up the CI framework

Add initial github actions testing framework since this is not going to be a full R package we want to add an example workflow where a test script will test R functions...

Dev functions/ workflow that use the calibration results

We are going to want to use the calibration results then to run Hector & save the run results & also compute the calc_table_metrics

Some things to consider

  • Do we need to verify this software?
  • Do we need to write any test functions?

ECS Sensitivity Testing

Do 20-30 runs with different (uniformly spaced) ECS values within the IPCC range to test how sensitive Hector is to changes in ECS.

Checking N2O and CH4 Data

Check to make sure Hector's N2O and CH4 concentrations look reasonable and match historical record

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