This package is used to investigate annual minimum river level on River Negro over Manaus. It will use a similar structure as PEACFLOW MANAUS Flood Forecasting.

1. Download the package.
2. Scripts are written in Bash and Python3. Following tools and packages are necessary.
3. To run the script: sh main.sh
   3.1 Enter forecasting year:
   
   3.2 Choose forecasting lead month:
   
   3.3 Whether to include model uncertainty (True is recommanded):
   
   3.4 Choose forecasting input:
   
   3.4.2 For Seasonal-Forecast only, if lead-month = August, then a model-ensemble need to be specified.
   • wiSep: Include September rainfall forecast.
   • woSep: Exclude September rainfall forecast.
     
     3.5 Downloading input data:
     
     3.6 Forecasting minimum river level with the uncertainty range:
     
     3.7 Investigating the probability under a customised threshold:
     

• Monthly rainfall mask for CHIPRS: mask_chirps_???.npz
• Monthly rainfall mask for ECMWF seasonal forecast: mask_chirps2ec_???.npz
• Statistical Forecast Model ensemble: forecast_model_w?Sep.pickle
• Data for ECMWF rainfall bias correction: rainfall_bias_correction*.npz
• Data for investigating forecast models uncertainty: models_uncertainty_w?Sep.npz

• CHIRPS monthly rainfall.
• ECMWF monhtly rainfall forecast.
• Prepending maximum river level over Manaus.
• Circulation indies: AMO, IPO, SOI.
• ECMWF monthly sea surface temperature forecast.

• Main forecast python codes: main_obs.py and main_forecast.py
• Download ECMWF rainfall forecast: ecmwf_forecast_rainfall_download.py
• Scrape and download the maximum river level over Manaus: fetch_river_level_max.py
• Scrape and calculate the seasonal circulation indies: fetch_???.py
• Associated funtions used in main python scripts: river_level_analysis.py

• Climate Data Operators (CDO)
  • More details can be found on its wiki page, Section: Installation and Supported Platforms.

• Zenity to generate diaglog box in command-line and shell scripts.
  • For Mac, a Homebrew Formulae is available.
  • For Windows, a GitHub repository is available.

• cf python package
  • Installation details are available here.
• ECMWF/cdsapi package for data download.
• Other common used packages inlcuding: numpy, pickle, sys, pandas, requests.