(on top of Sectoral CBs)

Both the power and residential sectors cannot meet their sectoral ceilings in CB2 (backstop in 2026 in all scenarios). We will have more finalised CB numbers when they are released (this week I'm told) which might ease pressure for both sectors. Otherwise we will have to enable additional mitigation options in each sector - H2 in power and district heating (to displace natural gas) for residential I expect.

In "Sectoral CBs" scenario

Diagnostic to see how far we get to net-zero

Please check that EV sales are not overly constrained. Expecting 13k sales in 2022 (https://stats.beepbeep.ie/) and potential for doubling each year.

The industry sector is not meeting it's CB2 so additional mitigation options are necessary, such as....

• more rapid electrification of heat
• alternatives to coal and waste
• low carbon cement

No longer relevant

Overview - Emissions & Costs - Domestic CO2 Emissions by Sector

seems to pick up the negative of aviation emissions, but everything else is missing

https://epmg.netlify.app/tim-gas-study-2022/results/overview/emissions-and-cost

Add growth constraint on domestic production as in biogas

Vahid can you investigate freight tonne-kms/vehicle in new freight vehicles please? I expect they are higher for new vehicles as we are seeing a dip in the total freight stock in the 2020s. I would expect the stock to track overall demand. Thank you.

https://epmg.netlify.app/tim-gas-study-2022/results/transport/vehicle-sales-and-stock

Limit bioenergy supply 2030-2050 to the value we have in 2030 (i.e., no additional bioenergy beyond 2030)

• Increase 2022 onshore wind capacity to 4.3GW in 2022 (source)
• Limit NCap for onshore wind to 0.5GW per year (source).. this is necessary to achieve 8GW in 2030 as CAP21
• START offshore wind at 2025 and NCAP at 1GW/year ..?
• No new hydro
• START CCS 2035

Share of indigenous production 2020-2022 as attached.
Electricity_Monthly_Timeseries.csv

• NoBECCS as core assumptions - H to send 5-yearly budgets
• Hannah to send updated DC demand projections (4, based on Eirgrid and a super-low - add 2025 data point - DC-high, DC-low, DC-vlow)
• Med = our core
• Med+LED
• Med+H-LED
• Med+HighPrice

Too many retrofits in 2023 (250k) - limit to max:
20k/year in 2023,
30k/year in 2024
40k/year in 2025
50k/year in 2026
60k/year each year following

Restore exports>imports constraint

There are 4 Mt unmitigated emissions in RES in CB2 and some also in CB1 - could be due to overly stringent fuel shares as coal is still coming through?

@energynumbers @daly-h

Currently, biogas is going to individual sectors rather than being blended in the grid, which is not plausible (unless for specific industries off the gas grid, like rural dairy processors, or captured freight fleets).

In particular, the residential sector is meeting its target by replacing NG with biogas from 2023-26. This may be resolved when we add plausible growth constraints for biogas. But it would be good to either blend biogas to the fuel techs entering sectors or else add share constraints so the proportion of biogas:NG for sectors is the same.

Great to see the work in DH come through. Could you consider adding some growth constraints to DH so it's not all delivered in 2023? :-)

Also can you check the level of ambient heat in this sector already in 2020.

Rollout of freight CNG/biogas rapid beyond plausibility - it requires two major transitions and infrastructure deployment (or actually three - electricity, hydrogen and natural gas) as well as a supportive policy environment, which is not there in the short term. So I suggest either

• adding a growth constraint to limit the immediate deployment of new tech
• adding a cost for charging infrastructure (though this could require equal treatment across all fuels)
• ??
  The issue may be somewhat resolved because we will constrain biogas deployment to a linear trajectory - current ramp up is too high.