mlnoga / covid19-analysis Goto Github PK

While many developed countries have passed the peak of new cases, global new cases are in their third wave of growth. This is fueled by high plateaus in large wave II countries like the US, and strong case growth in wave III countries like Russia.

Please note that passing the crest of new cases does not indicate peak strain on healthcare systems just yet; or that social distancing can be relaxed. Without other measures, renewed physical closeness would make curves raise exponentially again.

Please note that bottom-up state-by-state predictions of the US total, based on individual states, can and do differ from top-down predictions based on a countrywide total. The bottom up predictions should be more precise.

The novel coronavirus is bringing societies worldwide to a halt and causing widespread health impacts and fatal outcomes. Still, there appears to be a paucity of information how the crisis is likely to unfold in the near future. Most news outlets only show aggreate numbers, color-coded world maps, or descriptive statistics of the current situation.

This repository holds a daily series, in which I am taking a closer look at numbers and trends, and making some tentative projections. All data are taken from the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 dataset on GitHub. Each day, Johns Hopkins update the dataset with figures for the previous day; I salute their diligent work.

All projections are based on curve fitting on a per-country level. Thus, they extrapolate current trends. By nature, they can neither reflect the impact of recently enacted measures, which are expected to reduce infection rates, nor can they reflect new adverse developments. So please take everything with a grain of salt.

Stay safe, look after your loved ones, and stay healthy.

Markus Noga

For questions and comments, please reach out to me on LinkedIn or Twitter

• Demographic projection

• June 16 world and US by state
• June 15 world and US by state
• June 12 world and US by state
• June 11 world and US by state
• June 10 world and US by state
• June 9 world and US by state
• June 8 world and US by state
• June 7 world and US by state
• June 6 world and US by state
• June 5 world and US by state
• June 4 world and US by state
• June 3 world and US by state
• June 2 world and US by state
• June 1 world and US by state
• May 31 world and US by state
• May 30 world and US by state
• May 29 world and US by state
• May 28 world and US by state
• May 27 world and US by state
• May 26 world and US by state
• May 25 world and US by state
• May 25th World and US by state
• May 24th World and US by state
• May 23rd World and US by state
• May 22nd World and US by state
• May 21st World and US by state
• May 20th World and US by state
• May 19th World and US by state
• May 18th World and US by state
• May 17th World and US by state
• May 16th World and US by state
• May 15th World and US by state
• May 14th World and US by state
• May 13th World and US by state
• May 12th World and US by state
• May 11th World and US by state
• May 10th World and US by state
• May 9th World and US by state
• May 8th World and US by state
• May 7th World and US by state
• May 6th World and US by state
• May 5th World and US by state
• May 4th World and US by state
• May 3rd World and US by state
• May 2nd World and US by state
• May 1st World and US by state
• April 30th World and US by state
• April 29th World and US by state
• April 28th World and US by state
• April 27th World and US by state
• April 26th World and US by state
• April 25th World and US by state
• April 24th World and US by state
• April 23rd World and US by state
• April 22nd World and US by state
• April 21th World and US by state
• April 20th World and US by state
• April 19th World and US by state
• April 18th World and US by state
• April 17th
• April 16th
• April 15th
• April 14th
• April 13th
• April 12th
• April 11th
• April 10th
• April 9th
• April 8th
• April 7th
• April 6th
• April 5th
• April 4th
• April 3nd
• April 2nd
• April 1st
• March 31st
• March 30th
• March 29th
• March 28th
• March 27th including hindcasting
• March 26th
• March 25th
• March 24th
• March 23rd
• March 22nd
• March 21st
• March 20th

• Johns Hopkins Covid-19 dataset
• UN population projections

• JupyterLab