A study of key Russian and Ukrainian econonmic indicators over the period of 2010–2020.

The premise of this study was to research and analyse the performance of key Russian and Ukrainian economic indicators over the period of 2010–2020, specifically between the 2020–2021 period in line with the current Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

The key economic indicators analysed include:

For the period Jan 2021–Jan 2022, there has been an upward trend in Inflation (CPI), suggesting a rise in production costs, goods and services, and consumer demand.

Although disproportionate considering the geographical/geo-political locations of each country, the following chart outlines a correlation between Russian and Ukrainian GDP over the period of 2010–2020.

It is worth noting a correlation between Russian/Ukrainian GDP performance in 2014, where both countries experienced a drop in GDP, coinciding with the ongoing 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War.

It is also worth noting both countries have continued to experience diluted GDP performance during this period when compared to pre-2014 performances, suggesting the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the recent and ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to weigh-down GDP performance.

Similar to GDP, although disproportionate, there is a correlation between total Russian/Ukrainian Reserves over the 2010–2020 period. This correlation suggests wider geographical, geopolical and economic factors (such as trade) may impact both countries' total Reserve figures.

As with GDP, there is a correlation, although upward, between both Russian/Ukrainian total Reserves from 2014 onwards, suggesting the impacts of the 2014 Russo-Ukrainian War, and the recent and ongoing 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, have generated disproportionate wealth for both countries.

As outlined in the figure below, there is a steady correlation between Russian ESPO and Sokol oil prices during the period of 4 Feb–4 Mar 2022.

It should be noted however, that Russian oil prices have become more erratic and unpredicatable towards the end of February 2022, coinciding with Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

As outlined in the figure below, the price of natural gas across the globe in 2022 has differed drastically. Coinciding with Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the NYMEX (USA) TTF Gas price has remained relatively the same, while the Dutch TTF (Europe) Gas price has become increasingly more erratic and expensive.

This has resulted in higher prices for consumers in European countries, and coincides with Europe's greater reliance on Russia's natural gas supply during the winter period of 2022.

In addition, the rise in Dutch TTF Gas price indicates a potential for greater scarcity, cost and economic implications as a result of the current geopolitical/military tensions in the Russian/Ukrainian region.

Coinciding with the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the price of some commodities has risen dramatically during the period of March 2021–March 2022.

TTF Gas has skyrocketted 910%, while UK Gas has jumped 856% year-on-year.

Data World Bank, 2022, Russian total reserve figures, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?end=2020&locations=RU&start=2010&view=chart

Data World Bank, 2022, Ukrainian total reserve figures, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FI.RES.TOTL.CD?end=2020&locations=UA&start=2010&view=chart

Data World Bank, 2022, Russia GDP figures, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2020&locations=RU&start=2010

Data World Bank, 2022, Ukraine GDP figures, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2020&locations=UA&start=2010

OilPrice.com, 2022, ESPO oil price, https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#ESPO

OilPrice.com, 2022, Sokol oil price, https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#Sokol

Statista, 2022, Russian monthly inflation, https://www.statista.com/statistics/276323/monthly-inflation-rate-in-russia/

Statista, 2022, Russian inflation tables, https://www.statbureau.org/en/russia/inflation-tables

Trading Economics, 2022, Dutch TTF gas prices, https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gasoline-prices

Trading Economics, 2022, NYMEX gas prices, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

Trading Econoimcs, 2022, Commodity prices, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities