These files are to be used with R and did run in version 4.3.0.

The file 'data_raw.rda' includes the GDP series and financial stress indicator (CISS). These series were downloaded from the OECD MEI database and the ECB statistical data warehouse.

The individual R-source files are the following:

• 'designmat.R' produces the design matrices depending on model specification and forecast horizon
• 'qf-bart.R' contains the main estimation function
• 'forecast-ex.R' sets up a grid for all required estimations, defines algorithm settings and was run in a parallel computing environment
• 'utils.R' contains several helper functions

Some auxiliary functions may have been copied from other respositories. This code comes without technical support of any kind. Please report any typos or errors to: [email protected]. The code is free to use, provided that the paper is cited properly.