My investing notes and software

• Script to analyze
• TIKR
• https://www.investing.com/
• https://www.macrotrends.net/
• https://finviz.com/
• https://finance.yahoo.com/
• https://ycharts.com/

• Update checklists to use check operating margin instead of gross
• Check these stocks: BIDU, CSCO, IBM, META, ORCL, PYPL, QCOM, SAP
• Study LOGI in more depth. Great fundamentals. I would pay twice its stock value
• Study skyworks in more depth
• Study steel dynamics. What's going to happen with steel demand? If it falls back down after all these investments, the stock will collapse.

• Create spreadsheet to calculate price according to assumptions in bad - medium - good scenarios.(https://youtu.be/H1gfAXvRoSM)
• gdi? P/E = 12 cuando es predecible y crece

• Valuation models
  • Graham
    • 
  • Discounted cash flow
  • Multiples
  • Dividend discount

• Revenue (all money in)
• - Expenses (= COGS = Cost Of Goods Sold. Linked to product)
• = Gross Profit (Profit ignoring investment and R&D expenses) -- Related to Gross Margin = Gross profit / Revenue
• - Operating expenses (marketing, land rent. Not the product but the business)
• = Operating Income -- Related to Operating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue
• - Other non-operating expenses (Taxes, Investments, I+D)
• = Net Earnings, Net Income, Net Profit - Related to Profit Margin = Net Earnings / Revenue
  • Beware, net income may be low or negative and the company go well, if they're investing for growth!

• Equity = Assets - Liabilities
• EV = Enterprise Value = Market cap + Total Debt - Cash (and equivalents)
  • This is the money that you have to pay to get the company by itself, with no money accounts or debt, no storage or money.
  • You have to pay for the debt, but you get the cash of the company to pay
  • A low EV for a valuable company means it's cheap to buy. It's good.

ROI = Return On Invested capital = (Gross Profit / Cost of the investment) ~= 10% P/E ratio = Price / Earnings ~= 12 P/G ratio = Price / Gross Profit ~= 91 EPS = Earnings Per Share = Earnings / Shares

• FCF = Free Cash Flow = net income adding depreciation, amortization, capex, working capital, interests etc.
  • How much did the cash balance vary from year to year. Money left for investors and creditors (after investments).
• CARG = Compound Annual Growth Rate, Rate of Return ROR required to grow from beginning balance to ending balance
• FCF = Free Cash Flow = Profit from operations - Capital expenditures

EBIT: Earnings before interest and taxes. But includes depreciation and amortization. EBITDA: Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization = E + I(Interest) + T(Taxes) + D(Depreciation) + A(Amortization)

Free cash flow: EBI - Investments (capital expenditures, capex)

Debt to Equity Current ratio = Assets / Liabilities

P/B = Market cap / Book value (?)

Macro economic parameter: STOCK / Gross Domestic Product (.75 historical average)

Price / Sales (1 historical average)

10 YR PE ratio = Price / Net Income average over 10 year period (16 historical average) ~= about 15 average

Shares outstanding: Amount of shares in existence (which are not owned by the company itself)

Gross profit margin = Gross Profit / Revenue = (Revenue - COGS expenses) / Revenue

All data average of past 5 yrs. (PE, ROI, revenue, profit, income, Free Cash Flow)

1. Price / Gross profit < 20 (PE < 22 before. 10 is average for consumer electronics)
2. (ROI > 9%)
3. Gross Profit Margin > 10%
4. Revenue grows
5. Profit (net income or gross profit) grows
6. Shares outstanding not increasing
7. Assets > Liabilities, Equity > 0
   • Check equity per stock (stock value if company were to dissolve): Total equity / Shares outstanding
8. Long Term Liabilities / (Free Cash Flow) or Total Debt / EBITDA < 5 (They can pay it in 5 yrs)

If no risk, the companies don't have big investments:

1. FCF growing
2. ? FCF times PE < Market cap
3. Price to free cash flow, (profit - investments) < 20

Price: Shares:

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = < 10
• Gross profit margin = > .1
• Revenue grows
• Gross profit grows
• Shares outstanding
• Equity
• Equity per share = $/share
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = / = < 5

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit =
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = $/stock
• Current price: $/stock

Consider:

• FMC $90 stock check fundamentals
• SQM

Screeners:

• Finviz
• https://app.tikr.com/screener?sid=1&ref=bvi61n

Shares: 160e6

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = 22.5e9/4e9 = 5.6 < 10 ok (PE = 55)
• Gross profit margin = 40% > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares outstanding not worrying
• Equity = 4.9e9
  • Equity per stock = 4.9e9$/286E6 stock = 17.1$/stock
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 2300e6 / 3100e6 = 0.72 < 5

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = 4.9e9 + 20 * 2e9 = 80e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 80e9 / 286E6 = 280 $/stock
• Current price: 72 $/stock

Suponiendo valores antes de la subida: Gross Profit = 1e9 Equity = 1.5e9

Value = 1.5e9 + 15 * 1e9 = 16.5e9 Price per stock = 16.5e9 / 160e6 = 103$/stock

Price: 512e9 Shares: 2.6e9

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = 512e9/75e9 = 6.8 < 10 ok
• Gross profit margin = 85% > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares outstanding not worrying
• Equity = 126e9
  • Equity per stock = 126e9/2.6e9 stock = 48$/stock
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 10e9 / 19e9 = 0.52 < 5

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = 126e9 + 15 * 75e9 = 1251e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 261e9 / 2.6e9 = 481$/stock
• Current price: 232 $/stock

Price: 1.2e12 Shares: 12.8e9

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = 1.2e12 / 120e9 = 10 < 10 !
• Gross profit margin = 56% > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares outstanding not worrying
• Equity = 256e9
  • Equity per stock = 256e9 / 12.8e9 = 20$/stock
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 12.9e9 / 60e9 = 0.22 < 5

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = 256e9 + 15 * 120e9 = 2056e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 2056e9 / 12.8e9 = 161$/stock
• Current price: 96 $/stock

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = $\frac{175666e6}{28321e6} = 6.2$ < 10 ok (PE = 55)
• Gross profit margin = .34 > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Constant since 2019 ok
• Equity = 108.4e9
  • Equity per stock = $\frac{\text{Equity}}{\text{Shares outstanding}} = \frac{108378e6}{1824e6} = $59.4$
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 45.3e9 / 10e9 = 4.53 < 5 ok but be careful. However enough equity to pay it

High revenue but low gross profit in last years. 40% of income from parks, bye bye with covid. It's recovering.

• Value = Equity + P/G_estimated * Gross Profit = 100e9 + 9 * 25e9 = 325e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 475e9 / 1.83e9 = 177.6

Price: 7.7e9 $ Shares: 160e6

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = 7.7e9 / 1.5e9 = 5.13 < 10 ok
• Gross profit margin = 40% > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares outstanding not worrying
• Equity = 2.2e9
  • Equity per stock = 2.2e9 / 160e6 stock = 13.8$/stock
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 73e6 / 400e6 = 0.18 < 5

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = 2.2e9 + 15 * 1.5e9 = 24.7e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 24.7e9 / 160e6 = 154$/stock
• Current price: 53 $/stock

I get a price lower than its stock value with PE 6

Checklist ok:

• Price / Gross profit = 19.3e9/3e9 = 6.4 < 20 ok
• Gross Profit Margin = 20% > 10% ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok (wtf 4 times bigger)
• Shares outstanding not increasing ?
• Equity = 7e9 > 0 ok
  • Equity per stock = 7e9/175e6 = 40$/stock
• Debt / EBITDA = 3.2e9/2e9 = 1.6 < 5 ok

With a PE of 6, average of industry, the price per stock would be 3e9*6/176e6 = $102/share

Equity + 15 * Income = 8000M + 15 * 3200M = 56B

Market cap = 14.2B Net Income = 800 <-> 4000 ~ 1B Equity = 7B

7B + 15 * 1B = 22B

High capital expenditures because of new factory

Assuming PE of 6, quite low, average of market

• Gross profit: 2e9
• Value = Equity + PE * Gross Profit = 8e9 + 6 * 2e9 = 20e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 20e9 / 175.57e6 = 114

Actual stock is 119, so sell.

Checklist ok:

• Price / Gross profit = 16.4e9/2.6e9 = 6.3 < 20 ok
• Gross Profit Margin = 47.5% > 10% ok
• Revenue grows ok approx
• Gross profit grows ok approx
• Shares outstanding not increasing ?
• Equity = 5.5e9 > 0
  • Equity per stock = $5.5e9/160e6 = $35/stock
• Debt / EBITDA = 2.4e9 / 2e9 = 1.2 < 5 ok

Price: 2e12 Shares: 7.4e9

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = 2e12/100e9 = 20 < 10 NOPE, PE TOO HIGH
• Gross profit margin = 68% > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares outstanding not worrying
• Equity = 183e9
  • Equity per stock = 183e9$/7.4e9 stock = 24.7$/stock
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 44e9 / 60e9 = 0.73 < 5

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = 183e9 + 15 * 100e9 = 1.7e12
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 1.7e12 / 7.4e9 = 230$/stock
• Current price: 265 $/stock

Cap: 54.6e9 Shares: 552e6

Gross Profit: 15e9 Equity: 15e9 FCF: 5.8e9

Checklist:

• Cap/Gross Profit = 3.64 < 10
• Gross profit margin = .42 > .1
• Revenue grows: constant
• Gross profit grows: constant
• Shares outstanding declining slowly
• Equity per share = 26.6$/share
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 13e9 / 3.8e9 = 3.4 < 5

Hearing protection lawsuit seems ridiculously expensive. Look this up. Estimated about 5~20 e9$ Provides a wide range of essential products, so it's good for times of crisis.

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated(8)* Gross Profit = 135e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 244$/stock
• Current price: 102$/stock
• Gain factor = Price per stock / Current price =

Lithium provider for tesla,

Price: 22.6e9 Shares: 117.3e6

Checklist:

• Price/Gross Profit = 18.8 < 10 nope
• Gross profit margin = 35% > .1 ok
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares outstanding ok (~constant with some fluctuations, trend slightly up)
• Equity 8.2e9
• Equity per share = 70$/share
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 3.1e9 / 500e6 = 6.2 < 5 nope

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = 26.2e9
• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 223$/stock
• Current price: 186$/stock

Market cap = 14.5B Net Income = 500M Equity = 3.1B

3.1B + 30 * 500M = 18.1B

Net income = 8.4B Equity = 35.4B Market cap 750B

35.4B + 100 * 8.4B = 875B

Net Income = 4.8B EBITDA = 1.4B Equity = -15B Market cap = 76B

-15B + 15 * -4.8B (last income) = -87B Calculated market cap -15B + 15 * +10B (income from 2018, more representative) = 135B Calculated market cap

Checklist:

• Price / Gross Profit = 125e9 / 5e9 = 25$ < 10 NO!
• Gross profit margin = .08 < .1 NO!
• Revenue grows ok
• Gross profit grows ok
• Shares increasing! -> NO!
• Equity = -15e9 < 0 -> NO!
  • Equity per stock = -15e9 / 600e6 = -25
• Time to pay debt: Long term liabilities / free cash flow = 50e9 / 10e9 = 5 < 5 Careful!

• Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = -15e9 + 15 * 5.8e9 = 72e9

• Price per stock = Value / Shares = 72e9 / 600e6 = 120

• If the gross profit were the same as in 2018:

  • Value = Equity + PE_estimated * Gross Profit = -15e9 + 15 * 20e9 = 285e9
  • Price per stock = Value / Shares = 285e9 / 600e6 = 475

Equity = 59B Net Income = 7.2B Market cap = 102B

59B + 20 * 7.2B = 203B

3 + 15 * 3 = 48B