So far I'm working on a memo on this. Source is saturationDesign.Rmd in the master branch. We can see the memo here https://sbstusa.github.io/spilloverdesign/saturationDesign.html.

The Baird etc paper specifies some power calcs that might be useful.

BairdBohrenMcIntoshOzler_Spillovers.pdf

...just need to clean up our work here...

It is probably worth setting up a fake data file so that we can write up a pre-analysis plan and getting clear on what we want to do with the data once it arrives.

This is the plan to improve our design.

Avoid overfull states

Try 1/4 of the counties in each state in the treatment group to avoid overly filling states.

Avoid cross-pair adjacency of treated to control

Choose best pair as closest in size and largest in number of farmers. Then choose next pair that is not adjacent but closest in size and largest in farmers, etc..

• Pair choice to control cross-pair adjacency will be iterative, greedy.
  • Pair choice: 1000 versus 900 is better than 8 versus 7. Some way to choose pairs with larger counties. proportional difference better.
  • Pair choice: Avoid treated-to-control adjacency across state lines and within states.

Except for Minnesota, I think that the pair creation works.