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Predicting Default Risk - Creditworthiness

Classification Modelling and Performance Comparison

by Sooyeon Won

Keywords

  • Analytical Framework
  • Supervised Learning
  • Binary Classification Models
    • Logistic Regression Model
    • Decision Tree Model
    • Random Forest Model
    • Gradient Boosting Model
    • AdaBoost Model
  • ROC curve
  • K-fold cross-validation
  • Model Selection and its Application

Summary of Findings

A bank recently received an influx of loan applications. I built and apply different classification models to provide an appropriate recommendation. Among the various models, I found out that Random Forest Model is the most suitable for predicting the creditworthiness of credit applicants. Based on the Random Forest model, I concluded 408 customers belong to the segment 'Creditworthy’.

This analysis is separated into three parts.

  1. The first part of the analysis (Filename: 01_Creditworthiness_Data_Cleaning_Exploration.ipynb) contains the process of Data Cleaning and Data Exploration with appropriate visualizations. At the end of the Part1, I select the features associated with the creditworthiness of customers, which is the target variable of the analysis.
  2. In the second part of the analysis (Filename: 02_Creditworthiness_Data_Analysis.ipynb), I trained the dataset with various classification models: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Model, and AdaBoost Model. Then they are validated with the test dataset. Additionally, I evaluate the performance of the models with k-fold cross validation techniques.
  3. After selecting the model with best performance, I conclude that how many new credit applicants are classified as creditworthy customers.

References

Logistic Regression (aka logit, MaxEnt) classifier - sklearn
How to Calculate Feature Importance With Python
Decision Tree Classifier - sklearn
Categorical Features and Encoding in Decision Trees

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